Even the MSM is now admitting the current banking system of the West is just two or three weeks from collapse.
The focus of attention is on Greece. Ever met any Greeks? I have. The national pastime is gaming the system. The government simply gets to play with bigger numbers, because they are in the upper class. It won’t matter what the Greek ruling class agrees to in the face of what the various national and international agencies decree, the Greek people won’t go along with it. They’ve been scalped and have nothing left to lose, so rioting is just the beginning of their resistance. Never mind right or wrong, good or bad; it will happen. The Greek government runs out of cash in two or three weeks, they say.
They could attempt to bypass the cash system, but it won’t last more than a few days, at best. Given the nature of modern Greek culture, the people will be revolting before it even gets there. They understand all this even better than we do. They know the plutocrats aren’t broke, having hidden their golden parachutes outside the country. Does anyone seriously expect them to give back all they’ve stolen?
Everything we’ve read about this whole economic crisis boils down to that very thing. A certain portion of the population have created a class conflict on the sly. They are the corporate officers and upper management, all serving on each others’ directorship boards, and holding big chunks of voting stock, etc. It’s a closed system, which only looks good on paper. They have spent the past few decades feverishly awarding themselves huge bonus payouts from failing business operations. Did they honestly believe this mortgage swap fraud would work? Did they honestly believe sucking up all those tax breaks to send jobs overseas would still leave a functional economic base? That huge fantasy about the Information Economy came out of those boardrooms.
You can’t keep an economy going simply by shuffling the dollars faster and faster amongst the plutocrats. Everyone working in the information industry were actually doing little more than that. Such esoteric electron chasing simply served to mask the legalized embezzling. So now we have our own ruling class with their fat off-shore bank accounts, and every bank and corporation is failing. Were you aware there is virtually no bank fully solvent in reality? Hasn’t been since the first bubble burst in 2008 (credit unions don’t have this problem). All that fraudulent mortgage foreclosure activity was a hurried attempt to fatten the bank balance sheets. Too little, too late.
I suppose the prognosticators are exaggerating, since in reality things take longer than that when everyone is desperately trying to keep the current system going. So let’s see if we can play this out. It’s only my best estimate plus a smidgen of intuition, so you can come up with your own, if you like.
Greece runs out of cash, and the other players simply can’t afford to front them any more. Everyone who has already loaned them money will take a major loss. It’s been my experience the Europeans are slightly more honest about such things than we are, so the Greek bond and debt holders will report the loss, and many will be insolvent that day. I’m sure the repercussions will vary, but a lot of businesses and banks will simply be dissolved, assets sold to settle with their creditors, folks sent home. People who know a lot more about this than me say it will spread like wildfire, because the whole system has been trying to stabilize by spreading it out. But when you depend on a line of credit and your bank closes, you may have to shut down operations. It gets harder when you consider most governments will declare a bank holiday.
So the electronic fund transfers halt, and only cash is exchanged. That would indicate you might want to consider having a store of cash, if possible. But then, for most of us, there’s too much risk in tying up our limited resources that way. That’s the way it is for a huge majority of small businesses, because for quite some time, folks have been forced by circumstances to operate on the edge of failure for the past few decades. Everything is “just in time” and only those who have resources on hand set aside can survive the shock.
It takes awhile for current stocks to be depleted, but as you surely know, consumables go first — food, tobacco, etc. The predators who just barely get by in the best of times will go berserk. A lot of folks who were willing to play by the rules in the past may forget those rules. Some people will be slow to catch on that it’s all over. Most of them will be victims at first.
What you’re actually made of shows up when all your stuff is stripped away. It helps if you’ve been pondering it for awhile already.
Because of the vast number of folks involved, the vast amount of stuff, and all the links in the chains which tie us all together, I seriously doubt it will all come apart overnight. Heroic efforts to keep things going for awhile can see parts of the system stumbling along for weeks. Local variations will be hard to guess.
But in general, every major disaster has gone somewhat like that so far. But instead of a microcosm, like Hurricane Katrina, this will be international in scope. It also gives a big clue how the various levels and agencies of government will react. Ugly.
But don’t take my word for it. Think for yourself.
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